Institute for Government: Autumn Surprises – Possible Scenarios for the Next Phase of Brexit

The risks of either a deliberate or an accidental no deal are quite high.

This is according to an August 2018 paper by the Institute for Government on the possible scenarios for the next phase of Brexit.

The paper outlines 5 possible scenarios; the results of whether Theresa May secures a deal at the end of negotiations, and whether Parliament accept or reject the deal in their ‘meaningful vote’.

Only one of the scenarios will ensure an orderly exit.

The paper states that there is a high risk of stalemate, where Parliament will not vote for what is on offer, but equally it is impossible to crystallise a majority around an alternative to “no deal”.

It suggests that ways to break this stalemate include:

  • Making the vote a confidence vote
  • Allowing a free vote
  • Agree a very vague formulation of the future relationship
  • Change the Conservative leader
  • Trigger a political crisis and a general election

Read the paper in full (pdf).


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