‘Reduced EU migration would lead to a gradually declining and rapidly ageing working age population’.
This is according to the February 2019 report (pdf) from the independent Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population. This paper looks at specifically at how the ending of free movement and future UK Immigration policy will affect Scotland’s devolved responsibilities.
The paper finds:
- The changes set out in the White Paper are projected to reduce net migration to Scotland by between 30% and 50% over the coming two decades
- Under this reduced migration scenario, Scotland would continue to grow its population, but at a lower rate compared to current levels of migration.
- Lower levels of immigration from the EU countries would not significantly reduce the speed of population ageing in Scotland, but they would lead to a gradual decline and ageing of the working age population
- Non-migrant women would be especially affected by labour shortages in social care, as female family members would be most likely to bear the burden of gaps in care provision.